By Pierce Oel A. Montalvo, Researcher
SHARES of Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC) edged lower last week despite positive developments from its international brands, as economic shocks linked to the Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment, analysts said.
Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) data showed JFC was the third most actively traded stock during the week, with 11.63 million shares worth P1.89 billion traded from April 13 to 17.
The stock closed at P163.60 last Friday, down 3.5% from its P169.50 close on April 10. The decline was steeper than the PSE benchmark index’s (PSEi) 1.6% drop and contrasted with the industrial sector’s 0.7% gain.
Year to date, the stock has fallen 9.1% from its P180 close at end-2025, compared with the PSEi’s 0.9% decline and the industrial sector’s 2.6% gain.
Last week, the company issued four press releases on developments across its brands.
On Tuesday, JFC reported that Smashburger, its wholly owned US burger chain, improved from negative mid-teen same-store sales growth (SSSG) to positive double-digit growth by March 2026. The company attributed this to a $4.99 value platform and new menu items. The brand is targeting 10 to 12 new store openings in 2026, including five airport locations.
On Thursday, the company said Compose Coffee, its 70%-owned South Korean brand, posted a “strong” debut in Taiwan, generating about NT$70,000 in Day 1 sales. The brand, which operates about 3,000 stores in South Korea, plans to enter the Philippine market later in 2026.
Also on Thursday, JFC said Highlands Coffee, its Vietnam-based café brand owned 60% through SuperFoods Group, recorded high double-digit revenue growth in fiscal year 2025 from a year earlier, with high single-digit SSSG in the first quarter of 2026.
On April 16, JFC said South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission approved its planned acquisition of All Day Fresh Co., operator of Shabu All Day, the country’s largest all-you-can-eat hot pot chain with about 170 stores. The deal is expected to add around 2% to group revenues and 8% to global earnings before interest and taxes on an annualized basis, with an estimated payback period of two to three years.
Adrian Geoffrey S. Go, an equity analyst at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., said the updates reflect a shift toward capital-efficient expansion.
“JFC is aggressively pivoting toward a capital-light growth model,” he said in an e-mail. “By doubling down on scalable, franchise-ready brands across a variety of categories, they are de-risking their international expansion while accelerating the path to stronger profitability and growth.”
He added that the company is focusing on improving capital efficiency through expansion of acquired brands in Asia and the turnaround of Smashburger and its China business. “The common theme is to push for higher returns on invested capital. Success across these fronts, combined with the resilience of the Philippine business, provides a clear roadmap for boosting shareholder returns,” Mr. Go said.
Juan Alfonso G. Teodoro, an equity trader at Timson Securities, Inc., said Asia is driving JFC’s growth, while the US market remains under improvement.
“The recent updates from Jollibee Foods Corp. show that the company is focusing more on expanding in Asia, where its brands like Highlands Coffee and Compose Coffee are growing faster,” he said in a Viber message.
“At the same time, its US business, particularly brands like Smashburger, is still in the improving stage, as JFC still works on strengthening operations and profitability. For investors, this means Asia is currently the main driver of growth, while the US market remains a work in progress with potential upside over time.”
Despite the positive developments, analysts said geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East conflict continue to weigh on investor sentiment and could affect JFC’s expansion plans.
Mr. Go said the conflict affects JFC mainly through margin pressure. “Beyond the immediate spike in logistics, raw material, and energy costs, a significant secondary risk is a slowdown in capital deployment,” he said. “A persistent economic fallout could lead franchisees to adopt a more tentative investment posture which would act as a drag on JFC’s international scaling efforts, regardless of the underlying resilience of its portfolio.”
Mr. Teodoro said JFC’s exposure to geopolitical issues is mostly indirect. “Geopolitical issues can lead to higher costs for fuel, shipping, and raw materials, which may affect overall expenses,” he said. “Although, since JFC operates in many countries, it is not heavily reliant on one market, which is also helping reduce risk. If conditions worsen, investors will mainly watch how rising costs and global disruptions affect JFC’s operations.”
Luis A. Limlingan, head of sales at Regina Capital Development Corp., said it is difficult to identify which specific brand or region would be most affected.
“The Middle East conflict doesn’t really just affect the countries involved but the spillover of the war to heightened commodity prices and possibly pushing inflation higher which then disrupts or changes consumption behavior,” he said in a Viber message.
He added that JFC has expanded across multiple regions and brands. “It’s difficult to pinpoint which specific brand or geographic location would get hit the worst,” Mr. Limlingan said.
Analysts said the gap between improving fundamentals and the declining share price reflects broader market concerns rather than company-specific issues.
Mr. Go said stock prices and fundamentals can diverge for several reasons. “In this case, we think that the market’s fear of weaker business results because of the war in Iran is adding on to negative passive flows that are driving JFC’s stock price lower despite positive news flow on JFC’s business,” he said.
Mr. Teodoro said the decline despite positive earnings shows that stock prices do not always move in line with fundamentals in the short term. “Investors may possibly have priced in the good results earlier, leading to profit taking, or they could also be concerned about broader market conditions and global risks,” he said.
“For ordinary investors, this means that even if the company is performing well, the stock can still go down due to sentiment and expectations.”
Mr. Limlingan said the stock is trading at a discount. “One thing for sure is the stock is certainly trading at a discount with record lows of price-to-earnings,” he said.
JFC’s attributable net income rose 5.4% to P10.87 billion in 2025, while consolidated revenues increased 13.03% to P305.11 billion.
Mr. Go said JFC is expected to meet its 2026 guidance of 15% to 18% operating profit growth, supported by high single-digit systemwide sales growth and mid-single-digit SSSG.
Mr. Teodoro estimated first-quarter 2026 earnings at about P2.92 billion and projected full-year earnings at about P12 billion.
Mr. Limlingan sees support at P159 and resistance at P175 to P185. Mr. Go placed near-term support at P159 and resistance at P175. Mr. Teodoro set support at around P150 per share and resistance at around P170 to P172 per share.
JFC shares slip despite upbeat global updates
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